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High School Football Playoff Bubble Watch

High School Football Playoff Bubble Watch

The KDSN Area High School Football Playoffs Bubble Watch


We are coming in to the final weeks of the Iowa High School Football Season and that means it’s almost time for the State Playoffs!  Not everyone can make it in this year, and we at KDSN have broken down what the playoff Bubble looks like for 12 area teams.  The teams are sorted in to three categories: In the Bubble (Teams that have locked in a playoff spot), On the Bubble (Teams that still have work to do) and Outside of the Bubble (Teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention). Within the categories the teams will be ranked according to their situation, those with the best situation are first and those with tougher situations later.


In The Bubble


Logan-Magnolia Panthers: Tied for 1stin Class A District 8 with Woodbury Central (Woodbury Central owns head-to-head tiebreaker)

  • The Panthers have locked up not only a spot in the playoffs but a home-field advantage in the first round with a second-place finish in the District. Even a loss in the final week of the season will not change where the Panthers sit in the playoffs as they have head-to-head tiebreakers over all other district teams in state playoff contention. The reason the Panthers are in the best situation in the KDSN area is they still have a shot at winning the District championship if they win and Woodbury Central loses this week. 


OABCIG Falcons: 2ndin Class 2A District 2

  • The Falcons rattled off wins over Spirit Lake, Pocahontas Area, and Estherville Lincoln Central to seal up the second spot in the District after a loss to first place and currently #1 in Class 2A Southeast Valley. OABCIG will also have a home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  There is no chance OABCIG could win the District due to Southeast Valley having the head-to-head tiebreaker. 


IKM-Manning Wolves: 3rdin Class A District 8 a half-game over 4thplace

  • IKM-Manning took care of business against the necessary teams to lock in a 3 seed. The Tri-Center win over Woodbury Central certainly made things a little more interesting for the District title watch but didn’t do anything for the Wolves as they have head-to-head tiebreakers locking them into third place in the District. IKM-Manning will be on the road for the first round against a District Runner-Up.  


On The Bubble


Westwood Rebels: 5thin Class A District 8 a half-game behind 4thplace

  • The Rebels have a perfectly scheduled opponent for their final game of the season in Tri-Center. The Trojans currently hold a 1 game lead in the District over Westwood, and if the Rebels can win, they will have the head-to-head tiebreaker giving them 4thplace over Tri-Center. The reason Westwood has the best situation "on the bubble" is that they are the only school with the clearest objective: win and you're in. 


Boyer Valley Bulldogs: 3rdin 8-Player District 8 one game up on Exira-EHK who holds the head-to-head tiebreaker

  • If Boyer Valley would’ve beat Exira-EHK they would’ve locked in the final district auto bid. That didn’t happen and now things get a little more difficult. Technically, the bulldogs control their Destiny: Beat the number 2 ranked team in 8 Player and undefeated CAM and they're in. In the event that Boyer Valley loses to CAM, the Bulldogs will become Coon Rapids-Bayard fans as they will need them to beat Exira-EHK that night.
  • Path to State #1: Boyer Valley beats CAM
  • Path to State #2: Boyer Valley loses to CAM, Exira-EHK loses to Coon Rapids-Bayard


West Monona Spartans: Tied for 4thin Class 1A District 8 with MVAOCOU District 8 (Hold head-to-head tiebreaker over MVAOCOU)

  • Nothing like a three-way battle for the final Auto-bid in the district between KDSN Area Teams. Right now, West Monona has the clearest path of the three, win this Friday and they are in.  If West Monona happens to lose, then we start to get into what MVAOCOU does in their game along with the 17+/- Point differential of all three teams.
  • Path to State #1: West Monona beats East Sac County
  • Path to State #2: West Monona loses to East Sac County by less than 3 AND MVAOCOU loses to Treynor


MVAOCOU Rams: Tied for 4thin Class 1A District 8 with West Monona (West Monona holds head-to-head tiebreaker)

  • After falling to West Monona two weeks ago, MVAOCOU got a massive win for their playoff hopes over East Sac County, but the Rams don’t entirely control their own destiny because of the loss to West Monona. A three-way tie doesn’t do the job for the Rams either because they have the worst 17+/- Point differential in the District. MVAOCOU needs to beat Treynor to give themselves a chance, then it is time to do some scoreboard watching. 
  • Path to State: A win over Treynor AND a West Monona loss.


East Sac County Raiders: 6thin Class 1A District 8 one game back from 4thPlace

  • The “Win is a win and a loss is a loss” crowd isn’t familiar with how tiebreakers work in the State of Iowa. East Sac may still be winless, but they have kept enough games close enough that they have a chance at the playoffs.  The Raiders don’t control their own destiny, but they will need a win by 3 points or more this week over West Monona so they can have the 17+/- point standings advantage in the event of a 3 way tie with West Monona and MVAOCOU.
  • Path to State: East Sac County beats West Monona by 3 or more points and MVAOCOU loses to Treynor

Ar-We-Va Rockets: Tied for 3rdin 8 Player District 1 with Kingsley-Pierson (Kingsley-Pierson holds head-to-head tiebreaker)

  • Ar-We-Va has turned in a pretty high-quality season in a tough District. The stumble came in week 2 against Kingsley-Piersen, where it didn’t seem like Ar-We-Va had really hit their stride as a team.  The Rockets would get on a roll after that, including a high-quality win over Boyer Valley.  The Rockets go to Newell-Fonda with an opportunity to force a three-way tie for the 2ndand 3rdspots in the District.  It’s a tough situation though, as not only does Ar-We-Va need to beat a team that has spent a majority of the season in the top 10, but they have to beat them by a certain amount of points to put themselves in the lead of the 17+/- point standings between the 3. 
  • Path to State #1: Ar-We-Va beats Newell-Fonda by 14 or more
  • Path to State #2: Ar-We-Va beats Newell-Fonda by 7 or more AND Kingsley-Pierson loses by 6 or more


Denison-Schleswig Monarchs:Tied for 4thin Class 4A District 1 with Ft. Dodge (Teams havn’t played each other so there is no head-to-head tiebreaker yet)

  • It is difficult to really go through all of the scenarios that could get the Monarchs into State, but one thing is for certain, all of those scenarios are stretches. With two games left to District play, Webster City holds the top spot because of their 3-0 district record.  All other teams in the District have losses.  Denison-Schleswig’s losses to LeMars and Spencer make things really difficult on the Monarchs due to head-to-head tiebreakers.  There are only 2 auto bids per District in 4A with 4 At large bids from the FPI.  Denison-Schleswig’s FPI ranking is not looking favorable right now, currently ranked 24th, which is roughly middle pack.  To put it simply, the Monarchs are on the outside looking in.
  • Path to State #1: Denison-Schleswig wins out AND LeMars AND Spencer Lose Out
  • Path to State #2: Beat Webster City and Ft. Dodge and hope those two wins along with several losses across the state can boost Denison-Schleswig in to better FPI position.


Outside of the Bubble


West Harrison Hawkeyes:5thin 8 Player District 10

  • It was the rough start to September that really had West Harrison facing an uphill battle this season. A six-point loss to Exira-EHK stands out the most, A win in that swing game would’ve had them on the cusp of a three-way tie for the final auto bid this week.  This was a pretty competitive district once you got past the top two teams in CAM and Audubon who had no trouble with the other 5 teams in the District.  West Harrison has District play all wrapped up, but gets a chance to even the record out at .500 with a game against Griswold this week. 


Woodbine Tigers: 7thin 8 Player District 10

  • It feels like a season of “What could have been” for Woodbine. The toughest stretch was the back half of September, where the Tigers dropped back-to-back 2-point games to Coon Rapids-Bayard and Boyer Valley.  It is fun to imagine the chaos that would’ve ensued if Woodbine could’ve won those.  The main reason why Exira-EHK hadn’t sealed up 3rdplace in the District was that Woodbine HANDLED them on September 10th. You would have a rough time finding a team in the bottom of a District that is anywhere near as good as Woodbine. The Tigers still have a date with 8thranked Audubon and waiting confirmation on a week 9 game.


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